Political Budget Cycles in Autocracies: The Role of Religious Seasons and Political Collective Action

Abstract For autocrats ruling over religious populations as in many Muslim majority countries, threats of mass collective action and mobilization are risky to ignore, being potentially detrimental authoritarian survival. Religious seasons, such Ramadan, could raise the seriousness threats. Accordingly, incumbents might adopt expansionary fiscal policies avoid escalation political discontent at these times. Focusing on Egypt's policy between 2006 2019, I find that although season Ramadan is associated with modest increases government expenditure welfare spending, this relationship dependent level facing regime. Government spending higher Ramadan's when it preceded by more episodes anti-regime action. This evidence suggests interaction contexts generate budget cycles outside electoral seasons.